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"Pace Profile and Track Bias"

  •       Is your top pick going to benefit from the pace shape (AKA race shape, pace profile, etc) or will he have to overcome it? Also is today's track bias in his favor?

    For example: let's say you like a horse in a race and he's a front runner one dimensional type (E8). Are there other E8's, E7's, E6's or E's in general? If so then he's going to have to over come that.

    Is the track favoring speed today at this distance? If not there's another obstacle.

    On the other hand if there isn't much speed in the race and the track is playing fast, you have a very good bet on your hands there.

    The same holds true in the opposite for a closer (P's and S's). Is there plenty of speed in the race to set up his late run? Is the track bias not very speed favoring?.

    Pace profile is easy to recognize. Track bias is something you'll have to notice. Some tracks are notorious for speed and others just the opposite.

    Keep in mind some of the classier thoroughbreds could be far superior to the rest of the field and can overcome MANY obstacles. Get to know your track and check out the pace shape in each race.

    Two small things to do that can make you cash a lot more tickets:

    1) Be an intelligent player. Are you winning consistently?

    2) Are you a student of the game?

    Most of you that can answer no to one of the above questions will also answer no to the other. It only takes a little effort to gain a lot of profit.

    On Full Card Reports Reports: Pace Shape Ratings - This rating takes inventory of the speed points and run style for each horse.

    It then assigns each race a rating. Depending on the rating, you will know if each race favors speed, a closer or a balanced shape.

    A race with a 4.5 or higher pace shape rating has a good amount of early speed. 5.5 or higher pace shape rating has a large amount of early speed and might favor a closer depending on the track bias (which you, as student of the game, have been making mental notes or writing in a notebook).

    Conversely, a pace shape rating of 1.0 to 3.0 could definitely favor those with early speed especially if the track bias is favoring speed.

    A rating between 3.5 and 4.5 is the balanced area and these races will go where the track bias takes them or where the best horse does.

    Since most turf races favor closers, a pace shape rating in a turf race of 4.5 or higher definitely sets up for the best closer.

    Related Reading:

    "The Unique Power of Turn Time Ratings (TTR)" Horses that run higher Turn Time Ratings have proven to be the best at making that all important quick move on the turn and be in good position for the stretch drive once they straighten course.

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